标准普尔/澳交所200指数周二上涨1.01%，收于7778点，结束了连续两天的下跌，因为正如人们普遍预期的那样，澳大利亚储备银行连续第五次将现金利率保持在4.35%不变。澳大利亚储备银行还警告通胀存在上行风险，但市场押注央行今年更有可能降息，而不是再次加息。澳大利亚股市也追随华尔街隔夜科技股的涨势，将标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数推至历史新高。此外，大宗商品价格走强稳定了市场情绪，有助于资源密集型股市。权重金融股领涨，联邦银行（1.7%）、澳大利亚国家银行（1.9%）和麦格理集团（2.9%）涨幅强劲。包括矿业、科技和医疗保健股在内的所有其他板块也上涨。与此同时，Fortescue股价暴跌5.4%，此前一家大型基金为该矿业公司的大量股份寻找买家。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.01% to close at 7,778 on Tuesday, snapping a two-day decline as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting, as widely expected. The RBA also warned against upside risks to inflation, but markets are betting that the central bank is more likely to deliver a rate cut than another rate hike this year. Australian shares also tracked a technology-led rally on Wall Street overnight which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new record highs. Moreover, firmer commodity prices stabilized sentiment and aided the resource-heavy bourse. Heavyweight financial stocks led the charge, with strong gains from Commonwealth Bank (1.7%), National Australia Bank (1.9%) and Macquarie Group (2.9%). All other sectors including mining, technology and healthcare stocks also advanced. Meanwhile, Fortescue tumbled 5.4% after a large fund sought out buyers for a large stake in the mining company.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.15%以上，从两个月低点略有反弹，因为正如人们普遍预期的那样，澳大利亚储备银行连续第五次将现金利率保持在4.35%不变。澳大利亚储备银行还警告称，通胀上行风险依然存在，并指出最近CPI、家庭消费和服务业通胀数据强劲。然而，市场已经排除了几乎任何再次加息的可能性，相反，在第一季度GDP数据疲软后，12月降息的可能性约为56%。与此同时，由于美国5月通胀数据低于预期，美国债券收益率暴跌，国内收益率最近面临压力。美联储还表示，今年只降息一次，最晚可能在12月，但点图显示，2025年将采取更积极的降息路径。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.15%, rebounding slightly from two-month lows as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting, as widely expected. The RBA also warned that upside risks to inflation remain, noting recent strength in CPI, household consumption and service inflation numbers. However, markets have priced out almost any chance of another rate hike, and instead see around a 56% chance of a rate cut in December after weak first quarter GDP data. Meanwhile, domestic yields came under pressure recently as US bond yields tumbled on softer-than-expected US inflation figures for May. The Federal Reserve also signaled only one interest rate cut this year which could come as late as December, but the dot plot indicated a more aggressive cutting path for 2025.

澳元上涨至0.662美元以上，结束了连续三天的下跌，因为正如人们普遍预期的那样，澳大利亚储备银行连续第五次将现金利率保持在4.35%不变。澳大利亚储备银行还警告称，通胀上行风险依然存在，并指出最近CPI、家庭消费和服务业通胀数据强劲。然而，市场已经排除了几乎任何再次加息的可能性，相反，在第一季度GDP数据疲软后，12月降息的可能性约为56%。与此同时，澳元在最近几个交易日面临巨大的抛售压力，因为人们担心美联储可能会在更长时间内保持更高的利率，美元上涨。上周，美联储保持了政策利率的稳定，但表示今年只降息一次，而3月份的会议上只降息了三次。

The Australian dollar rose above $0.662, snapping a three-day decline as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting, as widely expected. The RBA also warned that upside risks to inflation remain, noting recent strength in CPI, household consumption and service inflation numbers. However, markets have priced out almost any chance of a another rate hike, and instead see around a 56% chance of a rate cut in December after weak first quarter GDP data. Meanwhile, the aussie came under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as the US dollar rallied on fears that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer. Last week, the Fed held its policy rate steady, but signaled only one rate cut this year compared to three reductions seen at the March meeting.

澳大利亚储备银行在6月的会议上将现金利率保持在4.35%，这是自2023年11月上次上调以来第五次保持借贷成本不变，并与市场预测保持一致。尽管如此，央行再次警告称，通胀率仍高于2%至3%目标区间的中点，这主要是由于服务成本持续高企。尽管最近的经济数据加强了对通胀上行风险保持警惕的必要性，但董事会继续认为，它没有排除任何可能性，因为它将依赖数据。与此同时，有迹象表明经济活动有所放缓，GDP增长放缓、失业率上升和工资增长慢于预期突出了这一点。政策制定者补充说，他们将密切关注全球经济、国内需求趋势以及通货膨胀和劳动力市场的前景。董事会还将外汇结算余额的利率保持在4.25%不变。

The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its cash rate at 4.35% during its June meeting, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for the fifth time since it was last raised in November 2023 and aligning with market forecasts. That said, the central bank cautioned again that inflation was still above the midpoint of the 2–3% target range, largely due to the persistently high cost of services. While recent economic figures have reinforced the need to stay vigilant to upside risks to inflation, the board continued to view that it was not ruling anything in or out as it will rely upon data. At the same time, there were indications of softening economic activity, as highlighted by easing GDP growth, rising jobless rates, and slower-than-expected wage growth. Policymakers added that they will closely monitor the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labor market. The board also kept the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25%.