美元/日元 (USDJPY) 加自选

日本10年期政府债券收益率升至0.93%以上，回落至六个月高点。此前，日本央行保持了与上次操作相同的债券购买量，选择不在本周早些时候突然削减债券购买。市场猜测，日本央行保持购买金额不变，因为日元受益于美元的广泛走弱，但交易员仍押注央行将在6月的政策会议上决定减少债券购买。日本央行行长上田一夫也表示，他没有立即出售央行ETF的计划。与此同时，本周早些时候的数据显示，日本经济在2024年第一季度年化收缩2%，这比市场预期的收缩1.5%还要糟糕，因为私人消费连续第四个季度下降。最新数据使日本央行的立场复杂化，日本央行需要平衡对经济的支持与捍卫疲软货币的努力。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 0.93%, marching back toward six-month highs after the Bank of Japan left its bond buying amounts the same as the previous operation, opting not to follow up with a surprise cut to debt buying earlier this week. Markets speculated that the BOJ left the purchase amounts unchanged because the yen benefited from a broad weakening of the dollar, but traders are still betting that the central bank will decide to reduce bond buying at the June policy meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said he has no immediate plan to sell the central bank’s ETF holdings. Meanwhile, data earlier this week showed that Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized 2% in the first quarter of 2024, coming in worse than market expectations for a 1.5% contraction as private consumption fell for the fourth straight quarter. The latest figures complicate the BOJ’s stance, which needs to balance its support for the economy with efforts to defend a weak currency.

日元兑美元汇率跌至156日元，在日本央行保持其债券购买量与之前的操作相同，选择不在本周早些时候突然削减债券购买后，日元再次面临压力。市场猜测，日本央行保持购买金额不变，因为日元受益于美元的广泛走弱，但交易员仍押注央行将在6月的政策会议上决定减少债券购买。日本央行行长上田一夫也表示，他没有立即出售央行ETF的计划。与此同时，本周早些时候的数据显示，日本经济在2024年第一季度年化收缩2%，这比市场预期的收缩1.5%还要糟糕，因为私人消费连续第四个季度下降。最新数据使日本央行的立场复杂化，日本央行需要平衡对经济的支持与捍卫疲软货币的努力。

The Japanese yen weakened toward 156 per dollar, facing renewed pressure after the Bank of Japan left its bond buying amounts the same as the previous operation, opting not to follow up with a surprise cut to debt buying earlier this week. Markets speculated that the BOJ left the purchase amounts unchanged because the yen benefited from a broad weakening of the dollar, but traders are still betting that the central bank will decide to reduce bond buying at the June policy meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said he has no immediate plan to sell the central bank’s ETF holdings. Meanwhile, data earlier this week showed that Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized 2% in the first quarter of 2024, coming in worse than market expectations for a 1.5% contraction as private consumption fell for the fourth straight quarter. The latest figures complicate the BOJ’s stance, which needs to balance its support for the economy with efforts to defend a weak currency.

周五，美元指数连续第二天上涨至104.5以上，但本周仍将下跌，因为通胀降温和整体经济势头放缓的迹象强化了美联储今年降息的预期。周三公布的数据显示，美国4月消费者通胀数据符合预期，但低于上月，而零售销售停滞不前。与此同时，投资者周四消化了喜忧参半的经济数据，首次申请失业救济人数与预测大致一致，进出口价格上涨超过预期，房屋开工和建筑许可证令人失望，工业生产意外停滞。与此同时，交易员等待美联储官员发出更多信号，因为政策制定者呼吁在降息前保持谨慎。美元兑大多数主要货币每周都会下跌，但兑日元和人民币持平。

The dollar index rose for a second straight day to above 104.5 on Friday, but was still set to decline for the week as signs of cooling inflation and slowing momentum for the broader economy reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Data released on Wednesday showed that US consumer inflation data came in line with expectations in April, but were lower than the month before, while retail sales stagnated. Meanwhile, investors digested mixed economic numbers on Thursday, with initial jobless claims fell roughly in line with forecasts, import and export prices rose more than anticipated, housing starts and building permits disappointed and industrial production unexpectedly stalled. Meanwhile, traders awaited more signals from Fed officials as policymakers called for caution before moving to cut rates. The dollar is on track for weekly falls against most major currencies, but was flat versus the yen and the yuan.

周五，日经225指数下跌0.9%，收于38600点以下，东证指数下跌0.2%，收于2732点，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，科技股领跌。日本股市也受到华尔街隔夜微弱领先的影响，在反弹至历史新高后，一些获利回吐冲击了市场。与此同时，本周早些时候的数据显示，日本经济在2024年第一季度年化收缩2%，这比市场预期的收缩1.5%还要糟糕，因为私人消费连续第四个季度下降。科技板块跌幅居前的是东京电子（-2.2%）、迪斯科公司（0.6%）、软银集团（-1.2%）、Socionext（-1.5%）和Recruit Holdings（-1.4%）。其他指数权重股也下跌，包括任天堂（-1.5%）、信越化学（-1.7%）和索尼集团（0.6%）。尽管如此，基准指数仍有望在本周结束时上涨。

The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.9% to below 38,600 while the broader Topix Index lost 0.2% to 2,732 on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session, with technology stocks leading the retreat. Japanese shares also took cues from a weak lead on Wall Street overnight as some profit-taking hit the market following a rally to record highs. Meanwhile, data earlier this week showed that Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized 2% in the first quarter of 2024, coming in worse than market expectations for a 1.5% contraction as private consumption fell for the fourth straight quarter. Losses in the technology sector were led by Tokyo Electron (-2.2%), Disco Corp (0.6%), SoftBank Group (-1.2%), Socionext (-1.5%) and Recruit Holdings (-1.4%). Other index heavyweights also tumbled, including Nintendo (-1.5%), Shin-Etsu Chemical (-1.7%) and Sony Group (0.6%). Still, the benchmark indexes are on track to end the week with gains.