英镑/美元 (GBPUSD) 加自选

英国10年期政府债券收益率升至4.119%，此前几位美联储官员表示，利率可能会在更长时间内保持高位。尽管最近通胀率有所下降，但在经历了数月令人失望的数据后，美联储仍不愿相信这一趋势。交易员预测，美联储今年将放松约47个基点的政策，11月的降息已经考虑在内。此外，有人猜测，从8月的第一次降息开始，英格兰银行2024年将降息60个基点。投资者热切期待下周英国的通胀率数据，以更好地衡量潜在降息的时机。

The UK 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.119% following statements from several Federal Reserve officials suggesting that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. Despite a recent inflation drop, the Fed hesitates to trust this trend after multiple months of disappointing data. Traders are forecasting approximately 47 basis points of easing by the Fed this year, with a rate cut in November already factored in. Additionally, there is speculation of up to 60 basis points of cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, starting with the first cut in August. Investors are eagerly anticipating next week's UK inflation rate data to better gauge the timing of potential rate cuts.

英镑连续第二个交易日下跌，从5月15日的5周高点1.269美元跌至1.265美元以下，此前多名美联储官员暗示有可能长期保持加息。尽管在数据低于预期后，通胀率将下降，但由于过去几个月的通胀数据一直令人失望，美联储官员仍持谨慎态度。交易员们现在预计，美联储全年将放松约47个基点的政策，11月的降息已经完全考虑在内。在英国，英格兰银行最早从8月开始，2024年可能会降息约60个基点。投资者正急切地等待下周的通胀率数据，以进一步了解第一次降息的时机。

The British pound declined for the second consecutive session, falling below $1.265 from a 5-week high of $1.269 on May 15, after multiple Federal Reserve officials hinted at the possibility of keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period. Despite an initial outlook for inflation to decrease following softer-than-expected data, Fed officials remained cautious due to consistently disappointing inflation figures over the past few months. Traders are now anticipating approximately 47 basis points of easing from the Fed throughout the year, with a rate cut in November already fully factored in. In the UK, there is a possibility of around 60 bps of cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, starting as early as August. Investors are eagerly awaiting next week's inflation rate data for further insight into the timing of the first-rate cut.

富时100指数在上一交易日小幅下跌后，周五略有下跌，投资者在当天晚些时候等待英格兰银行货币政策小组成员凯瑟琳·曼的评论。货币市场已经考虑到英国央行2024年降息约60个基点的可能性，预计8月将首次降息。摩根士丹利下调汽车交易集团的评级和目标价后，该集团股价下跌约4%。葛兰素史克股价下跌0.8%，此前该制药商通过出售其在消费者医疗保健公司Haleon的全部剩余股份（-0.5%）筹集了12.5亿英镑（15.2亿美元）。

The FTSE 100 saw a slight decline on Friday, following small losses in the previous session, as investors awaited comments from Bank of England's monetary policy panel member Catherine Mann later in the day. Money markets have priced in a possibility of around 60 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts by the BoE in 2024, with the first cut expected in August. Auto Trader Group was down around 4% after Morgan Stanley lowered its rating and target price on the stock. GSK traded 0.8% lower after the drugmaker raised 1.25 billion pounds ($1.52 billion) by selling its entire remaining stake in consumer healthcare firm Haleon (-0.5%).

周五，美元指数连续第二天上涨至104.5以上，但本周仍将下跌，因为通胀降温和整体经济势头放缓的迹象强化了美联储今年降息的预期。周三公布的数据显示，美国4月消费者通胀数据符合预期，但低于上月，而零售销售停滞不前。与此同时，投资者周四消化了喜忧参半的经济数据，首次申请失业救济人数与预测大致一致，进出口价格上涨超过预期，房屋开工和建筑许可证令人失望，工业生产意外停滞。与此同时，交易员等待美联储官员发出更多信号，因为政策制定者呼吁在降息前保持谨慎。美元兑大多数主要货币每周都会下跌，但兑日元和人民币持平。

The dollar index rose for a second straight day to above 104.5 on Friday, but was still set to decline for the week as signs of cooling inflation and slowing momentum for the broader economy reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Data released on Wednesday showed that US consumer inflation data came in line with expectations in April, but were lower than the month before, while retail sales stagnated. Meanwhile, investors digested mixed economic numbers on Thursday, with initial jobless claims fell roughly in line with forecasts, import and export prices rose more than anticipated, housing starts and building permits disappointed and industrial production unexpectedly stalled. Meanwhile, traders awaited more signals from Fed officials as policymakers called for caution before moving to cut rates. The dollar is on track for weekly falls against most major currencies, but was flat versus the yen and the yuan.