美元作为全球表现最佳的主要货币进入下半年。在更高的利率、有弹性的经济增长和投资者对美国资产的持续需求的支持下，美元将在2026年下半年强势进入。尽管通胀担忧有所缓解，地缘政治有所缓解，但对进一步加息的预期、强劲的资金流入和人工智能驱动的乐观情绪继续支撑着美元兑主要全球货币的走强。

US dollar heads into second half as world's top-performing major currency.The US dollar is set to enter the second half of 2026 on a strong footing, supported by higher interest rates, resilient economic growth and sustained investor demand for US assets. Despite easing inflation concerns and geopolitical relief, expectations of further rate hikes, strong inflows and AI-driven optimism continue to underpin dollar strength against major global currencies.

First Light新闻：价格上涨，美联储利率预期和风险的艰难早晨。市场目前预计，到年底，美联储将收紧政策15个基点，到2027年中期，加息将完全计入价格。

First Light News: Price Hikes, Fed Rate Expectations & a Rough Morning for Risk.Markets now price in 15 bps of Fed tightening by year-end, with a rate hike fully priced in by mid-2027.

美元：长期利率保持高位的结构性支撑——MUFG。美元：长期利率保持高位的结构性支撑——MUFG

US Dollar: Structural support holds with high-for-longer rates – MUFG.US Dollar: Structural support holds with high-for-longer rates – MUFG

英镑兑美元预测：美国强劲增长和通胀支撑美元。英镑兑美元（GBP/USD）汇率周四波动，因强于预期的美国经济增长和通胀数据抵消了早些时候美元的疲软。在撰写本文时，英镑/美元的交易价格约为1.3184美元，与周四的开盘水平几乎持平。

Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: Strong US Growth and Inflation Support Greenback.The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded erratically on Thursday as stronger-than-expected US growth and inflation data offset an earlier bout of US Dollar weakness. At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3184, virtually unchanged from Thursday's opening levels.