2024年5月，俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率从4月的7.8%跃升至8.3%，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，当时西方制裁的基数效应软化了俄罗斯经济中飙升的价格增长水平。这一数据与俄罗斯央行的信号一致，即广泛的产能危机和对俄罗斯消费者的一些吸引力相结合，正在使通胀超过央行早些时候的预期。服务业（8.55%）和商品（8.19%）的通货膨胀率都有所上升。此外，核心通胀率超过了8.64%的总体通胀率。与上月相比，俄罗斯CPI上涨了0.74%，为2月份以来的最大涨幅。

The annual inflation rate in Russia jumped to 8.3% in May of 2024 from 7.8% in April, the highest since February 2023, when base effects from Western sanctions softened the soaring levels of price growth in the Russian economy. The reading was aligned with the Bank of Russia’s signals that a combination of a widespread capacity crisis and some traction for Russian consumers is lifting inflation past the central bank’s earlier expectations. Inflation was elevated both for services (8.55%) and goods (8.19%). Additionally, core inflation surpassed the headline rate at 8.64%. From the previous month, the Russian CPI rose by 0.74%, the most since February.

继2023年最后一个季度增长4.9%之后，俄罗斯国内生产总值在2024年第一季度以每年5.4%的速度增长，与快速估计一致，略高于早些时候市场预期的5.3%。去年，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，西方制裁引发了2022年的经济崩溃，这一加速延续了俄罗斯产量的强劲势头。尽管如此，市场仍对这种反弹的可持续性表示怀疑，因为扩张在很大程度上依赖于国家资助的战争武器弹药投资，而这些投资几乎没有带来回报，并阻碍了俄罗斯人的生活水平。批发和零售贸易（11.4%）、制造业（9%）和建筑业（4.8%）实现了增长。与此同时，国内生产总值平减指数为13.4%，扩大了俄罗斯经济的巨大通胀压力，并延长了对鹰派CBR的预期。

The Russian GDP expanded by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, in line with the flash estimate and slightly ahead of earlier market expectations of 5.3%, following the 4.9% increase in the final quarter of 2023. The acceleration extended the strong momentum for Russian output following last year’s rebound from the 2022 crash, triggered by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, markets have placed doubts on the sustainability of such a rebound, as the expansion has largely relied on state-funded investment in arms and ammunition for its war effort, which are due to bring little return and hamper Russians’ living standards. Growth was carried by wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), manufacturing (9%), and construction (4.8%). In the meantime, the GDP deflator was at 13.4%, extending sharp inflationary pressure in the Russian economy and prolonging expectations of a hawkish CBR.

在莫斯科交易所周四暂停美元和欧元交易后，俄罗斯10年期OFZ的收益率小幅升至15%以上，达到两年多来的最高水平，这是对美国旨在阻碍俄罗斯维持乌克兰战争的新一轮制裁的回应。此前，俄罗斯央行将其关键利率维持在16%，并在即将举行的会议上暗示可能加息。最近的数据显示，总体通胀率为8.2%，大大高于CBR 4%的目标，这是由于供应链中断和劳动力危机导致的需求超过了经济的产能限制。此外，围绕俄罗斯能源创收的不确定性促使财政部增加OFZ的供应，这也导致了产量的上升。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ edged up to above the 15% mark, touching levels not seen in over two years, following the Moscow Exchange's suspension of trading in dollars and euros on Thursday, a response to a new wave of U.S. sanctions aimed at hindering Russia’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine. Previously, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its key interest rate at 16% and hinted at a potential rate hike in its upcoming meeting. Recent data shows headline inflation at 8.2%, significantly above the CBR’s 4% target, driven by demand outpacing the economy's constrained production capacity due to disrupted supply chains and a labor force crisis. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding Russia’s energy revenue generation prompted the Finance Ministry to increase the supply of OFZs, which also contributed to the rise in yields.

由于莫斯科交易所周四停止了美元和欧元的交易，俄罗斯卢布在6月份进一步升值至88美元大关，交易价格约为5个月高点。此举是对美国新一轮制裁的回应，旨在削弱俄罗斯继续在乌克兰战争的能力。此前，俄罗斯央行决定将其关键利率维持在16%，并在下次会议上表示可能加息。此外，卢布仍受到克里姆林宫大量资本控制的支持，这些控制人为地保护卢布免受低外汇流入的影响。在最新措施中，莫斯科将一项总统令延长至2025年4月底，该法令要求主要出口商在收到后120天内将至少80%的外汇收益出售给俄罗斯银行。

The Russian ruble appreciated further towards the 88 per USD mark in June, trading around 5-month highs, as the Moscow Exchange halted trading in dollars and euros on Thursday. This move was a response to a new wave of U.S. sanctions aimed at curtailing Russia’s capacity to continue its war in Ukraine. Previously, the Central Bank of Russia decided to maintain its key interest rate at 16% and signaled a potential hike in its next meeting. Additionally, the ruble remained supported by a large extent of capital controls by the Kremlin that artificially shield the currency from the effects of low foreign exchange inflows. Among the latest measures, Moscow extended a presidential decree until the end of April 2025 that mandates key exporters to sell at least 80% of their foreign exchange proceeds to Russian banks within 120 days of receipt.