回到未来：随着能源价格担忧的消退，新西兰储备银行将缩减OCR加息。自5月初我们上次审查我们对全球和国内经济的预测以来，情况发生了很大变化——考虑到下个月政策审查中新西兰储备银行加息的持续定价，市场似乎已经意识到了这一点。关键问题是，在缓解波斯湾紧张局势方面取得了出乎意料的快速进展，霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量有可能更快地恢复，从而改善了石油、石化产品和天然气以及一系列其他关键产品（如化肥）的贸易流量。

Back to the Future: RBNZ to Scale Back OCR Hikes as Energy Price Worries Recede.A great deal has changed since early May when we last reviewed our forecasts for the global and domestic economies – more than the market appears to have appreciated considering the continued pricing of a RBNZ rate hike at next month's policy review. The key issue has been the unexpectedly quick progress on reducing Persian Gulf tensions and the potential for a faster return of shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz, with resultant improvements in trade flows of oil, petrochemical products and natural gas, as well as a range of other key products (such as fertiliser).

美联储鹰派立场导致新西兰元跌至0.5650附近。美联储鹰派立场导致新西兰元跌至0.5650附近

New Zealand Dollar weakens to near 0.5650 on hawkish Fed stance.New Zealand Dollar weakens to near 0.5650 on hawkish Fed stance

美元因中东风险而上涨，新西兰元走软，美国数据坚挺。美元因中东风险而上涨，新西兰元走软，美国数据坚挺

New Zealand Dollar weakens as US Dollar rises on Middle East risks, firm US data.New Zealand Dollar weakens as US Dollar rises on Middle East risks, firm US data

尽管美伊和平进程取得进展，新西兰疲软至近0.5700。尽管美伊和平进程取得进展，新西兰疲软至近0.5700

New Zealand softens to near 0.5700 despite US-Iran peace progress.New Zealand softens to near 0.5700 despite US-Iran peace progress