三菱日联金融集团表示,由于日本央行加息未能改变美元/日元走势,干预措施可能会减缓日元下跌。市场对日本央行加息和Katayama-Bessent结盟语言的温和反应是三菱日联金融集团报告中最有力的信号:口头干预和政策收紧正在减缓日元疲软,但都没有扭转这一趋势,这使东京越来越依赖威胁的可信度,而不是其执行。美元/日元保持在161.95以下,表明这一门槛正在得到遵守,但10月份定价上调16个基点无法产生有意义的日元复苏,这表明结构性抛售压力正在压倒利率差异。
MUFG says intervention threat slowing yen slide as BOJ hike fails to shift USD/JPY trend.The market's muted response to both the BOJ hike and the Katayama-Bessent alignment language is the most telling signal in MUFG's note: verbal intervention and policy tightening are doing the job of slowing yen weakness but neither is reversing it, which leaves Tokyo increasingly reliant on the credibility of the threat rather than its execution. USD/JPY remaining below 161.95 shows the threshold is being respected, but the inability of 16 basis points of priced October hikes to generate a meaningful yen recovery suggests structural selling pressure is overwhelming the rate differential story.