标普全球表示,6月份澳大利亚商业活动稳定,但新订单持续下降。综合指数接近49.8的稳定不太可能单独大幅改变澳大利亚储备银行的预期,但信心指数是一个危险信号:2020年3月以外疫情以来的最低情绪表明,私营部门正在为恶化而不是复苏做准备,这对远期消费支出和商业投资产生了影响。新订单连续第四个月持续下降,表明需求疲软,仅靠产出稳定无法掩盖,招聘和订单量之间的差异是典型的后期周期信号,表明就业增长可能是短暂的。
Australian business activity steadies in June but new orders keep falling, S&P Global says.The near-stabilisation of the composite at 49.8 is unlikely to shift RBA expectations materially on its own, but the confidence reading is a red flag: sentiment at its weakest since the pandemic outside of March 2020 suggests the private sector is bracing for deterioration rather than recovery, which has implications for forward consumer spending and business investment. The continued fall in new orders for a fourth consecutive month points to demand weakness that output stabilisation alone cannot mask, and the divergence between hiring and order intake is a classic late-cycle signal that employment gains may prove short-lived.