俄罗斯卢布/人民币 (RUBCNY) 加自选

根据初步估计，2024年第一季度，俄罗斯国内生产总值每年增长5.4%，略高于市场预期的5.3%，并从第三季度的4.9%加速增长。去年，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，西方制裁引发了2022年的经济崩溃，这一加速延续了俄罗斯产量的强劲势头。尽管如此，市场仍对这种反弹的可持续性表示怀疑，因为扩张在很大程度上依赖于国家资助的战争武器弹药投资，而这些投资收效甚微，并阻碍了俄罗斯人的生活水平。俄罗斯宏观经济分析中心警告称，通货膨胀率仍然很高，而该国由军事动员引发的劳动力危机及其导致的工作年龄男性的散居给能力带来了压力。国际货币基金组织预计俄罗斯今年的国内生产总值将增长3.2%，而经济部预计增长2.8%。

The Russian GDP expanded by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, slightly ahead of market estimates of 5.3%, and accelerating from the 4.9% expansion in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The acceleration extended the strong momentum for Russian output following last year’s rebound from the 2022 crash, triggered by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, markets have placed doubts on the sustainability of such rebound, as the expansion has largely relied on state-funded investment on arms and ammunition for its war effort, which are due to bring little return and hamper Russians’ living standards. Russia's Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis warned that inflation remains high, while the country’s labor force crisis triggered by military mobilization and its resulting diaspora of working-aged men pressure capacity. The IMF expects Russia’s GDP to expand by 3.2% this year, while the Ministry of Economy expects growth to be 2.8%.

2024年4月，俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率从3月的7.7%小幅上升至7.8%，与市场预测相符。上涨压力来自食品价格（8.3%对8.1%）和非食品价格（7%对6.7%）。与此同时，服务成本略有下降（8.1%对8.3%）。4月份，核心通胀率从上一时期的7.8%加速至8.3%。居民消费价格环比上涨0.5%。

The annual inflation rate in Russia edged up to 7.8% in April 2024 from 7.7% in March, matching the market forecasts. Upward pressure came from prices of food (8.3% vs 8.1%) and non-food products (7% vs 6.7%). Meanwhile, the cost slowed marginally for services (8.1% vs 8.3%). The core inflation rate accelerated to 8.3% in April from 7.8% in the previous period. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.5%.

周五，基于卢布的MOEX俄罗斯指数收于3490点，投资者为收盘后公布的初步GDP结果和月度通胀数据做好了准备。他们还关注了普京访华第二天发生的事件。在企业方面，增长的领导者是NorNickel（2.7%）、PIK（2.7%），GLTR（91.3%）、MMK（1.3%）和Aeroflot（1.2%）。自新喀里多尼亚矿区动荡持续以来，NorNickel受益于镍价上涨。与此同时，MKB（-1.8%）、Ros Agro（-1.1%）、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（-11.1%）和Tatneft（-0.9%）也出现了亏损。市场也对Rosseti保持关注，该公司将召开会议决定股息。每周，该指数有望上涨1.2%。IPO热潮、季度业绩改善和股息回报抵消了对CBR长期紧缩货币政策的担忧。

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index traded muted at 3,490 on Friday, as investors positioned themselves for preliminary GDP results and monthly inflation reading due after the closing bell. They also followed the events from the second day of Putin's visit to China. On the corporate front, the leaders of growth were NorNickel (2.7%), PIK (2.7%), GLTR (91.3%), MMK (1.3%), and Aeroflot (1.2%). NorNickel benefited from higher nickel prices since unrest continued in New Caledonia mining region. Meanwhile, losses were seen by MKB (-1.8%), Ros Agro (-1.1%), Gazprom (-1.1%), and Tatneft (-0.9%). Markets also remained attentive to Rosseti, which would be holding the meeting to decide on dividends. Weekly, the index was poised for 1.2% gain. The IPO boom, improved quarterly results, and return to dividends offset worries over tight-for-longer monetary policy by CBR.

在中国，上海综合指数上周五上涨了30点，涨幅为0.97%。涨幅居前的是中国财富（9.23%）、保利地产（8.15%）和绿地控股（6.60%）。跌幅最大的是福耀玻璃工业（-5.33%）、锦州港（-3.11%）和海尔智能家居（-2.34%）。

In China, the Shangai Composite Index went up by 30 points or 0.97 percent on Friday. Top gainers were China Fortune (9.23%), Poly Real Estate (8.15%) and Greenland Holdings (6.60%). Biggest losses came from Fuyao Glass Indu (-5.33%), Jinzhou Port (-3.11%) and Haier Smart Home (-2.34%).