根据初步估计，2024年第一季度，俄罗斯国内生产总值每年增长5.4%，略高于市场预期的5.3%，并从第三季度的4.9%加速增长。去年，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，西方制裁引发了2022年的经济崩溃，这一加速延续了俄罗斯产量的强劲势头。尽管如此，市场仍对这种反弹的可持续性表示怀疑，因为扩张在很大程度上依赖于国家资助的战争武器弹药投资，而这些投资收效甚微，并阻碍了俄罗斯人的生活水平。俄罗斯宏观经济分析中心警告称，通货膨胀率仍然很高，而该国由军事动员引发的劳动力危机及其导致的工作年龄男性的散居给能力带来了压力。国际货币基金组织预计俄罗斯今年的国内生产总值将增长3.2%，而经济部预计增长2.8%。
The Russian GDP expanded by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, slightly ahead of market estimates of 5.3%, and accelerating from the 4.9% expansion in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The acceleration extended the strong momentum for Russian output following last year’s rebound from the 2022 crash, triggered by Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, markets have placed doubts on the sustainability of such rebound, as the expansion has largely relied on state-funded investment on arms and ammunition for its war effort, which are due to bring little return and hamper Russians’ living standards. Russia's Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis warned that inflation remains high, while the country’s labor force crisis triggered by military mobilization and its resulting diaspora of working-aged men pressure capacity. The IMF expects Russia’s GDP to expand by 3.2% this year, while the Ministry of Economy expects growth to be 2.8%.
