英镑在1.25美元左右，徘徊在四周高点，投资者仍关注美联储降息的时机。在美国就业报告低于预期后，与之前预测的11月时间表相比，美国央行现在预计将在9月实施首次裁员。与此同时，预计英格兰银行将在即将到来的5月会议上保持利率不变，但投资者将在8月而不是9月对首次降息进行全面定价。4月，英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利对英国通胀率有望达到2%的目标表示乐观。2024年3月，英国通胀率从上月的3.4%降至3.2%，为2021年9月以来的最低水平。总体通胀率在2022年10月达到11.2%的峰值。

The British pound was around $1.25, hovering at four-week highs, as investors remained focused on the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is now expected to implement its first cut in September, compared to the previously projected November timeline, following a softer-than-anticipated US jobs report. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming May meeting but investors are fully pricing the first cut in August instead of September. In April, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism as British inflation appeared on track to meet the 2% target. The UK inflation fell to 3.2% in March 2024, the lowest rate since September 2021, from 3.4% in the prior month. The headline inflation reached its peak of 11.2% in October 2022.

2024年4月，中国外汇储备减少448.3亿美元，达到3.201万亿美元，低于市场预期的3.23万亿美元，而3月为3.246万亿美元，因为美元兑其他主要货币走强。上个月，人民币兑美元贬值0.28%，而美元兑一篮子其他主要货币升值1.8%。截至4月底，中国持有7280万金衡盎司黄金，高于3月底的7274万盎司，这是连续第18个月增加，导致中国黄金储备价值从1610.7亿美元上升到1679.6亿美元。

China's foreign exchange reserves fell by $44.83 billion to reach $3.201 trillion in April 2024, missing market expectations of $3.23 trillion and compared with $3.246 trillion in March, as the US dollar strengthened against other major currencies. Last month, the yuan depreciated by 0.28% against the dollar, while the dollar strengthened by 1.8% against a basket of other major currencies. By the end of April, China held 72.8 million fine troy ounces of gold, up from 72.74 million ounces at the end of March, the 18th straight month of increase, resulting in the value of China's gold reserves rising to $167.96 billion from $161.07 billion.

德国10年期国债收益率在5月初跌至2.44%，为约一个月来的最低水平，人们越来越预期主要央行将很快开始降息。在美国劳动力数据低于预期后，人们对美联储今年放松政策的计划越来越乐观。与此同时，欧洲央行预计将于6月开始削减借贷成本，欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane指出，最近的数据使他更加确信通胀正在回到2%的目标。大多数欧洲央行官员似乎支持下个月的宽松政策，但拉加德总统没有暗示会进一步削减。货币市场对今年的三次降息几乎完全定价。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell to 2.44% in early May, the lowest in about a month, amid growing expectations that major central banks will soon start cutting interest rates. Optimism grew about the Fed's plans to ease this year after softer-than-expected US labor data. The ECB meanwhile, is expected to start cutting borrowing costs in June, with Chief ECB economist Philip Lane noting that recent data have made him more certain that inflation is returning to the 2% goal. Most ECB officials appear to support easing next month, but President Lagarde hasn't hinted at further cuts. Money markets are almost fully pricing in three cuts this year.

受印度储备银行有限干预下其他亚洲货币普遍疲软的压力，印度卢比兑美元汇率跌至83.5，随后进一步抛售，并于4月16日接近83.7的历史低点。尽管日本央行进行了干预，中国人民银行采取了混合措施，但日本和中国的美元购买水平上升，给整个亚洲大陆的新兴市场货币带来了压力。因此，投资者降低了对印度储备银行支持卢比空间的预期，因为印度储备银行通常对强势美元的防御将导致印度商品和服务在全球市场上对亚洲竞争对手的吸引力降低。尽管如此，印度经济的韧性和对印度储备银行的鹰派预期阻止了经济的进一步下滑。在最近的一次会议上，央行指出，食品价格上涨带来的通胀上行风险保证了长期的终端利率。

The Indian rupee weakened to the 83.5 per USD level, giving in to further selling and approaching the record low of 83.7 on April 16th, pressured by broad weakness in other Asian currencies amid limited intervention from the RBI. Despite BoJ intervention and mixed fixes by the PBoC, elevated levels of dollar buying in Japan and China pressured emerging market currencies across the Asian continent. Consequently, investors pared expectations on the RBI’s room for rupee support, as its usual defense against a strong dollar would drive Indian goods and services to be less attractive against Asian rivals in global markets. Still, a resilient Indian economy and hawkish expectations for the RBI prevented an even sharper downturn. In its latest meeting, the central bank noted that upside risks to inflation due to higher food prices warrant a prolonged period of terminal interest rates.